What do the numbers tell us?

More on the Ebola Virus Disease… from Sierra Leone

On Friday, July 4rth, the Ministry of Health and Sanitation in Sierra Leone released these figures…

-       504 cases/samples have been tested.

-       254 cases/samples have been confirmed as Ebola

-       73 deaths in medical facilities have been confirmed with Ebola

-       92 people are being treated in medical facilities for Ebola

-       32 people have been treated and released from medical facilities

Now, we all know that numbers tell only a portion of the story… the full story, at least here in Sierra Leone, will probably never be told. Secrecy, embarrassment, cover-ups, a lack of information, corruption, mistakes, are all part of the story. And, that side of the story is as scary and sad as the tale the numbers tell.

But, let’s start with the success stories, which will probably also never be fully told. Thirty-two people have been treated and released. That’s interesting because according to my research and basic knowledge of the disease, it’s fatal up to 95% of the time. According to some sources here, this virus strain of Ebola is slightly different this time around. I’ll have to look into this notion of a “different” strain of the EVD.

Apparently now, if a patient is confirmed with the disease and they’re given immediate care, ie. isolation, rehydration and heavy doses of antibiotics, the disease will dissipate and a patient can be released. Again, I’ll have to look into this…

Back to the numbers...

73 people have died

-       32 have been treated and released

-       92 are being treated BUT…

-       254 people have been confirmed with the disease…

Now, my mathematics isn’t great… but from what I can tell… 73 + 32 + 92 = 197. That’s 197 people, according to these numbers, that have been confirmed with the disease (dead, being treated and those that have been treated and released). But, if you take the total number of cases confirmed (254) minus the total number of people dead, being treated and those treated and released (197)… that still leaves 57 confirmed cases who are neither dead, being treated or released/”healed”.

I have no idea why there’s this discrepancy. I have heard tell of patients who have been confirmed with the disease… and then run away or hidden from health authorities. There are lots of reasons for this… fear being the primary motive for not seeking treatment. I’ve heard some people are afraid to go to the medical facilities because if they are confirmed with the disease, they think/know they’re going to die.

The rumours around this crisis have multiplied as the disease numbers grow. At one time, many people didn’t believe the disease was real. In fact, I sat in Parliament here when the Minister of Health, Miatta Kargbo, presented information to elected MPs. One of the questions from a Member of Parliament was, “is the disease really real?” To which the Minister replied, “we have teams of international experts on the ground in the affected area and they have confirmed that this disease is Ebola and is very real.”

Then there was the rumour that nurses and healthcare workers were injecting the disease into people who sought treatment for their aches, flu symptoms, etc. This resulted in several violent incidences in Kailahun (the centre of the outbreak) between nurses and civilians. The police had to be called in several times to quell the upset. Along the same lines, a rumour spread that nurses were injecting children with Ebola via a vaccine injection campaign. And of course, there’s ever-present rumour that this is “African magic” or “juju” and is an invention of a witch to kill off the people in the East of the country. Sigh. No comment…

Does this account for the “missing” numbers – 57? Possibly.

Again, this discrepancy is worth looking into… and, as you can see, there are still many sides to the story that are yet untold.